How Accurate is the Goal Success Forecast? What's the Basis?
What is the "Goal Success Forecast" ?
The Goal Success Forecast is a data-driven estimate (0%-100%) of your likelihood of successfully completing a goal. It is calculated by analyzing multiple factors, including:
- Goal Execution Health (The current quality of your progress)
- Current Goal Phase (Startup / Growth / Reinforcement / Maintenance)
- Phase Duration Ratio (Are you on track within the expected timeframe for your current phase?)
- External Influencing Factors (Policy changes, cultural trends, industry shifts)
- Success Rate of Similar Users (Historical outcomes of users with similar profiles and goals)
How is the forecast calculated?
The forecast uses a dynamic, weighted calculation model. The main dimensions and their approximate weights are as follows:
Dimension Weight How It Influences the Forecast Execution Health 40% Every ±10 points adjusts the forecast rate by ±4% Current Phase Progress 10% Points are deducted if a phase is overdue External Factors 10% Points are added for favorable conditions (e.g., supportive policies, high industry demand, resource availability) Success Rate of Similar Users 30% References the successful paths of 80% of comparable users Unexpected Variables 10% Accounts for unforeseen events (e.g., health issues, economic changes) Please note: The specific weights are dynamically adjusted based on ongoing product optimization and user feedback. Any changes are made solely to improve the accuracy of the forecast.
My Forecast Rate is Low. What Should I Do?
You can improve your forecast by addressing the specific areas impacting your score:
| Dimension | Common Issues | Recommended Solutions |
|---|---|---|
| Low Execution Health | Disorganized tasks, low motivation | Re-focus your mindset and stick to the planned tasks. Use the "Sprint Mode" to accelerate progress. |
| Lagging Phase Progress | Key milestones are not completed | Analyze the bottleneck and prioritize the most critical next action. |
| Unfavorable External Factors | Limited local opportunities, high competition | Consider adjusting your goal's scope, timeline, or strategy to better fit the environment. |
| Low Success Rate for Similar Users | Users with similar starting points have historically struggled | Learn from the strategies of high-scoring users. Chat with the AI Life Coach for personalized guidance. |
Is This Forecast Accurate? What is It Based On?
The algorithm's reliability is grounded in:
- ✅ Validation from a large dataset of anonymized user goals and outcomes.
- ✅ Established Behavioral Science Theories, such as Goal-Setting Theory.
- ✅ Real-time external data (e.g., job market trends, policy updates) where applicable.